The Official Coronavirus Discussion

[davent]

It seems there's a widespread idea out there that if enough of us get this virus it will just die off and go away. That idea ignores the reality that the more people who get the virus the more potential for mutation and then resurgence, as well as the reality that some people will just never be able to breath the same again after it.

I remember reading about a total asshat walking around the U.S. Capitol Building simply saying "herd immunity" when asked why he refuses to wear a mask.  I think he may even have a medical degree (truly frightening).  I can't remember which state he represents.

For whatever reason when i see reference to 'herd' i always think lemmings mass suicide off a cliff (apparently a myth and perpetuated by Disney, but nevertheless the image endures.)


dave

[jimilee]

It seems there's a widespread idea out there that if enough of us get this virus it will just die off and go away. That idea ignores the reality that the more people who get the virus the more potential for mutation and then resurgence, as well as the reality that some people will just never be able to breath the same again after it.

I remember reading about a total asshat walking around the U.S. Capitol Building simply saying "herd immunity" when asked why he refuses to wear a mask.  I think he may even have a medical degree (truly frightening).  I can't remember which state he represents.

For whatever reason when i see reference to 'herd' i always think lemmings mass suicide off a cliff (apparently a myth and perpetuated by Disney, but nevertheless the image endures.)


dave

+1 tThat's about the size of it! Seems like a great concept til you get sick.


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[thesmokingman]

ideally what we need is only enough people immune that the virus isn't pushed to mutate more rapidly (or more radically) to find new hosts ... in agriculture those anti-vaxxers or just people who do not have access to a vaccine would be considered "refuge" ... the rest of us would get some mileage out of being vaccinated, world keeps on spinning. tbh with the amount of people catching it more than once ever-increasing I'm wondering what an effective vaccine would even look like

[CodeMonk]

It seems there's a widespread idea out there that if enough of us get this virus it will just die off and go away. That idea ignores the reality that the more people who get the virus the more potential for mutation and then resurgence, as well as the reality that some people will just never be able to breath the same again after it.

I remember reading about a total asshat walking around the U.S. Capitol Building simply saying "herd immunity" when asked why he refuses to wear a mask.  I think he may even have a medical degree (truly frightening).  I can't remember which state he represents.

Sounds like Rand Paul.
Senator (R-KY) since 2011.
Education: Duke University School of Medicine (1984–1988)
https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/hospital-management-administration/10-things-to-know-about-rand-paul-s-medical-career-healthcare-views.html

First US senator to test positive for coronavirus
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/22/politics/rand-paul-coronavirus/index.html

[EBK]

Actually, I think it was Ted Yoho, representing Florida of all places.  He has a degree in Veterinary Medicine.

Just to be clear, I would call anyone who refuses to wear a face mask with the justification of "herd immunity" a total asshat.  This has nothing to do with his political views or affiliations.  Also, quarantine fatigue has caused me to have a shorter fuse than normal.  I apologize for using such impolite language in this extremely friendly place. I will try harder to restrain myself in the future.

[CodeMonk]

You're fine.
I tend to have a disdain for most politicians, even the ones I would be willing to vote for.
I've read about a few moronic things Rand Paul has said or done.
But with you naming a Florida politician for being a bit uhm, off the rails, you win

[davent]

'Herd immunity', has it been established there is immunity once having recovered from having Covid-19?

From the CDC website, updated June 28, 2020;

The immune response, including duration of immunity, to SARS-CoV-2 infection is not yet understood. Patients with MERS-CoV are unlikely to be re-infected shortly after they recover, but it is not yet known whether similar immune protection will be observed for patients with COVID-19.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/faq.html

dave

[benny_profane]

'Herd immunity', has it been established there is immunity once having recovered from having Covid-19?

From the CDC website, updated June 28, 2020;

The immune response, including duration of immunity, to SARS-CoV-2 infection is not yet understood. Patients with MERS-CoV are unlikely to be re-infected shortly after they recover, but it is not yet known whether similar immune protection will be observed for patients with COVID-19.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/faq.html

dave

You're right—there is no consensus regarding the adaptive immune response and much that is not yet fully understood. Remember that this is a novel pathogen and there's still much unknown. The cardiovascular impacts are particularly concerning.

I'm glad to see that folks (especially young people) here have an appreciation for the severity of this. With that said, though, the impacts of anxiety are important too. Be responsible and take care of yourself is the best advice. But, this is not over and the warm weather isn't going to make it disappear. The novel nature of the pathogen is more dominant than any environmental factor (i.e., this doesn't have the cyclical seasonal pattern of established infectious diseases because it is new to our innate immune response). However, the decrease in sustained, close indoor contact has a mitigating effect.

On a related note, yes there's a mutation in the virus. No, that doesn't mean anything in particular. Viruses copy themselves as they infect/spread. They're also not very good at it and copy errors are made. From a virus' perspective, it's most beneficial to become less virulent/lethal while becoming more infectious (think common cold rhinoviruses). They want to be able to spread without inconveniencing/killing those it infects. So, as news reports come out about 'mutations'—just as with everything else—that needs to be contextualized and studied before it really means anything.

Small rant: The world absolutely had the opportunity to contain and perhaps eradicate SARS-CoV-2. That we didn't is a massive failure. There is dwindling hope of that now. Even with a vaccine, the (almost certain) necessity of cold-chain supply and the trend of aversion to vaccines in middle- and high-income countries means that that won't be the final answer.

[matmosphere]

Plenty of people have gotten so used to just waiting for the next news cycle to make problems disappear. Unfortunately that hasn't turned out to be a viable strategy in this case.

The thing I really don't understand is how we didn't use those couple of months were everything was shut down to educate ourselves on best practices so that things could more safely reopen. It felt like to me we closed everything down, then just waited a while. What changed during that time that made reopening safe? Now infections are rapidly increasing again, just like they were before we closed. We should have had a concerted public health movement to help us get smart so that we could safely reopen and not have to face closing down again a month later, like we are now.

[bamslam69]

So far down here in Australia we haven't been told "officially" to wear masks. Still quite a few people are wearing them, but that doesn't stop some from doing silly stuff like ignoring social distancing.

Our toll is still low, but a 2nd wave is hitting Victoria. Some state borders still closed too.

Looking forward to getting back to the pub, but at least our band can rehearse again. Sick of working from home too.

[Beedoola]

'Herd immunity', has it been established there is immunity once having recovered from having Covid-19?

From the CDC website, updated June 28, 2020;

The immune response, including duration of immunity, to SARS-CoV-2 infection is not yet understood. Patients with MERS-CoV are unlikely to be re-infected shortly after they recover, but it is not yet known whether similar immune protection will be observed for patients with COVID-19.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/faq.html

dave

You're right—there is no consensus regarding the adaptive immune response and much that is not yet fully understood. Remember that this is a novel pathogen and there's still much unknown. The cardiovascular impacts are particularly concerning.

I'm glad to see that folks (especially young people) here have an appreciation for the severity of this. With that said, though, the impacts of anxiety are important too. Be responsible and take care of yourself is the best advice. But, this is not over and the warm weather isn't going to make it disappear. The novel nature of the pathogen is more dominant than any environmental factor (i.e., this doesn't have the cyclical seasonal pattern of established infectious diseases because it is new to our innate immune response). However, the decrease in sustained, close indoor contact has a mitigating effect.

On a related note, yes there's a mutation in the virus. No, that doesn't mean anything in particular. Viruses copy themselves as they infect/spread. They're also not very good at it and copy errors are made. From a virus' perspective, it's most beneficial to become less virulent/lethal while becoming more infectious (think common cold rhinoviruses). They want to be able to spread without inconveniencing/killing those it infects. So, as news reports come out about 'mutations'—just as with everything else—that needs to be contextualized and studied before it really means anything.

Small rant: The world absolutely had the opportunity to contain and perhaps eradicate SARS-CoV-2. That we didn't is a massive failure. There is dwindling hope of that now. Even with a vaccine, the (almost certain) necessity of cold-chain supply and the trend of aversion to vaccines in middle- and high-income countries means that that won't be the final answer.

Here in the Bay Area I see the use of masks by young people as mixed. I find it interesting as I know some younger people (I'm 35, these people being in their early 20s) that were Bernie supporters but don't seem to get or care about masks.

I find the reluctance to wear masks akin to people that don't want to wear a bicycle helmet cause they think it makes them look uncool. This isn't to say anyone that doesn't wear a helmet does it for that reason.

Could be also the misinformation that is still lingering that CV19 only effects older people.

[matmosphere]

I have been reading articles that suggest a big reason for the increasing numbers is people spreading spreading Covid at family get togethers and small parties. If stuff like that is causing an uptick I think it's time to face the fact that schools won't be able to safely open next month.

[EBK]

I have been reading articles that suggest a big reason for the increasing numbers is people spreading spreading Covid at family get togethers and small parties. If stuff like that is causing an uptick I think it's time to face the fact that schools won't be able to safely open next month.

Agreed.  Our city schools are still trying to figure things out.  They've suggested allowing parents to keep their kids home for more remote learning or allowing kids to return on alternating days, which I consider more difficult to manage than keeping them home, especially when I have two kids who wouldn't necessarily have the same at-school days.  I'm imagining my daughter refusing to go to school on her at-school day and yanking her mask off so that I can't safely make her go.  I can't handle that.

Also, as I've said before, my comfort level is at Phase 0, regardless of what reopening phase my state is rushing into.  I'm still on mandatory telework, with the option to enter the office only for a very limited time with express written authorization (highly discouraged).

Seriously, WTF:

[jimilee]

I have an N95 mask, I think it looks cool. I feel like cobra from GI joe or bane from the Batman series.


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[aion]

I have an N95 mask, I think it looks cool. I feel like cobra from GI joe or bane from the Batman series.

Or the Lone Ranger apparently?

(Either DJT has never seen the Lone Ranger or he doesn't understand what kind of mask we're supposed to wear for COVID, but either way something's terribly wrong.)